The New York City mayoral election has yet to be decided, but speculation over who will win and what policies they might put in place has already sparked the beginning of an exodus from the Big Apple.
With Democratic Socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani leading in the polls—and promising sweeping tax and housing reforms—a growing number of affluent New Yorkers are quietly eyeing up alternative locales, asking brokers to line up properties in such places as Westchester County, NY, and New Jersey.
“Yes, the election is definitely playing a big role in buyers’ motivation to relocate,” Taylor Lucyk, broker and founder of the Taylor Lucyk Group in Bergen County, NJ, tells Realtor.com®.
Their reasons vary: Some cite fears of higher taxes or shifting housing policies, others point to crime, congestion, or plain political fatigue.
But together, they’re fueling what agents across the tristate area describe as a fresh wave of migration that’s already igniting bidding wars and record-breaking sales just beyond the city limits.
Agents from Greenwich, CT, to Paramus, NJ, say their phones have been ringing off the hook since Mamdani’s decisive primary win this summer.
They’re calling it the “Mamdani effect,” a sudden rush of Manhattan and Brooklyn buyers eager to lock in suburban properties before potential policy shifts take hold.
And the numbers suggest that while the national market has cooled, these suburban pockets are running hot.
According to the Realtor.com October Housing Report, while active listings nationwide rose 15.3% year over year, marking the 24th straight month of inventory growth, the pace of growth has slowed each month since May, hinting that post-pandemic inventory recovery may be plateauing.
Even as mortgage rates have eased to 12-month lows, homes are sitting longer on the market—63 days on average, up five days from last year—and pending sales have slipped 1.9%.
However, while the national median list price held steady at $424,200, prices in the Northeast actually saw modest gains. That regional strength underscores how New York’s suburbs are bucking national slowdowns as city buyers look to make their move.
A surge in suburban interest
In Westchester County, real estate agents Zach Harrison and Heather Harrison of The Harrison Team at Compass tell Realtor.com they’ve seen a significant uptick in business—at least some of which has been prompted by the impending election.
“While several factors are fueling this resurgence, concerns about the mayoral election keep coming up among buyers from New York. City residents eyeing the suburbs have cited a potential Mamdani victory as a key reason for making their move,” they said.
Sales going into contract in Westchester are up about 15% compared with the same period last year, the Harrisons say—making this one of the most visible election-driven shifts in the region’s history.
“Buyers consistently mentioned three main concerns—taxes, safety, and more space. Showing activity this fall is up 28.1% compared to June, before the primary election,” Zach noted.
“Nearly all of the Westchester towns have no resident income tax, and many potential buyers have voiced concerns that resident income taxes in the city may be on the rise.”
Bidding wars are really heating up as demand outpaces supply, the agent duo explained.
“Most of the bidding wars are in the ‘under $4 million’ price category, but we recently saw multiple bids on a home priced between $4 and $5 million,” they revealed.
And this trend is not limited to one specific area—or even a handful of suburban communities.
“In practical terms, we’re seeing more tours, faster offer cycles, and more bids above asking. Some of
the hottest markets right now are Scarsdale, Mamaroneck, Larchmont, Rye, White Plains, Harrison,
Edgemont, New Rochelle, the Rivertowns, plus Northern Westchester towns like Armonk, Briarcliff,
Chappaqua, and Bedford.”
The Harrisons say they recently saw a Westchester home listed at $1.5 million draw 24 offers. It sold for $700,000 over asking after just four days on the market.
“What makes this season different is the pace at which buyers are interested in buying immediately,” says Heather. “The surge feels like we’re back in the low-interest-rate COVID era, but with more urgency.
“One of our recent listings had a buyer make an offer hundreds of thousands above asking before they had even seen it in person to try to beat out the competition!”
New Jersey neighbors
In New Jersey, the momentum is just as fierce, Lucyk says.
“Yes, the election is definitely playing a big role in buyers’ motivation to relocate,” he confirmed. “We’ve seen a noticeable increase in clients from New York City who are exploring the suburbs, and our open houses have been busier than usual.
“We’re gaining new clientele each week, and overall lead activity has picked up significantly.”
Lucyk shared examples that illustrate how heated the competition has become, revealing: “One of our recent buyer-side deals in Fair Lawn sold for over $70,000 above asking—about 8% higher—driven largely by the town’s reputation and excellent school district.
“Another home in Cedar Grove had 17 offers; we successfully secured it for our clients by offering $90,000 over asking. Both examples show just how competitive the market has become.
“Inventory remains tight, but the recent dip in interest rates has had a major impact on activity. The political climate is adding an extra layer of urgency this year, making this season even busier than usual.”
Suburbs defy national trends
According to Realtor.com, national inventory growth has been strongest in the Northeast and Midwest, where buyers from pricier metro centers are spreading outward.
By contrast, inventory growth in the South and West—markets that led the post-pandemic boom—has slowed, helping to narrow the regional divide in housing activity. Homes in politically stable, high-income suburbs around New York appear to be benefiting from that shift, with prices holding firm while other regions soften.
In Greenwich, CT, Compass luxury real estate agent Mark Pruner says the demand surge is evident even at the top end.
“Our inventory is down 81% from 2019, so our sales are limited by that. Overall, we only have 2.7 months of supply, so it is very much a seller’s market except over $5 million, where we have 9 months of supply. However, this is way down this year as we are having the best year ever for sales over $5 million,” Pruner told Realtor.com.
Even with record-low inventory, Pruner says, contracts have “gone up sharply” over the last five weeks—an anomaly that coincides with Mamdani’s prominence. He cites several recent listings that went hundreds of thousands over ask, including a $2.4 million home that sold for $2.96 million in five days.