As the weather cools heading into late fall, so does the U.S. housing market, with Florida leading the nation in metros experiencing the steepest home price declines.
A recent report from real estate analytics firm Cotality revealed that of the 10 coolest markets in the U.S. among the 100 largest metros, seven were in Florida.
Cape Coral, FL, a city of 32,000 renowned for its scenic canals, stood out for recording Florida’s largest year-over-year drop in home prices in September—and the second-highest overall, behind Champaign, IL—falling 7.1%.
Next on the list was Naples, FL, where home prices fell 6.7%, followed by Punta Gorda, FL (-6.2%), Sebring, FL (-5.2%), North Port, FL (-5.1%), Brownsville, FL (-4.8%), and Sebastian, FL, which rounded out the top 10 with a 4.6% decline. Notably, Wichita Falls, TX, and Kahului, HI, ranked eighth and ninth, respectively.
“These towns are largely retirement and second-home places, so there is not much business or industry coming into these areas outside of tourism that generates jobs and keeps the economy going, so wages are lower and you don’t have people relocating to this area for jobs, hence less demand for buying as well as renting,” Cara Ameer, real estate broker at Coldwell Banker Vanguard Realty in Florida, tells Realtor.com®. “All of this creates a perfect storm for a decline in property values.”
In August, the typical single-family home in hard-hit Cape Coral sold for $350,000, down nearly 7% from the previous year, according to the latest available data analyzed by Realtor.com researchers.
Compared with August 2022 during the pandemic boom era, when mortgage interest rates were near historic lows and demand surged, the median home sales price in Cape Coral has dropped by more than 13%.
Meanwhile, the typical home in North Port sold in August 2025 for 20% less than three years ago.
Cape Coral continues to struggle
A mix of national and local factors has been fueling Cape Coral’s downward trend, as rising home financing, higher insurance premiums, and increasing foreclosure rates curbed buyer interest.
The city’s location on the Gulf Coast leaves it vulnerable to hurricane damage and flooding, making it both more difficult and more expensive to secure home insurance.
In fact, Cape Coral has the nation’s third-highest premium-to-market ratio of 2.2%. This metric measures how much a homeowner is paying in insurance premiums each year relative to the market value of their home.
For example the owner of a $350,000 home in Cape Coral would have to set aside $7,700 to cover their annual insurance premium.
Ameer says that although Florida does not have a state income tax, the savings are usually not significant enough for lower-income residents to offset the rising costs associated with owning property in these coastal areas plagued by surging insurance costs, and higher HOA and condo fees.
“Florida is starting to become lopsided in property values as a result of these kinds of shifts,” she says.
Separately, Cape Coral earned the dubious distinction of having the third-highest foreclosure rate among 225 metros with a population of all least 200,000, according to the Q3 2025 report from ATTOM, a curator of land, property, and real estate data.
However, Karen Borrelli, president of Royal Palm Coast Realtor Association and agent at John R. Wood Christie’s International Real Estate, tells Realtor.com that while the number of foreclosures and short sales in Cape Coral are up compared with last year, the data does not suggest that there is “a disaster looming in front of us,” she says.
Coastal markets are seeing an overcorrection
But these metrics do not capture the full picture when it comes to Florida’s distressed markets like Cape Coral, North Port, and Naples. Experts and real estate agents agree that a key factor putting downward pressure on prices in those metros is overcorrection from the overheated pandemic years.
“Rapid price growth, combined with increasingly costly and difficult-to-obtain insurance, and rising mortgage rates, pushed many would-be buyers out of these Florida markets,” says Realtor.com senior economic research analyst Hannah Jones. “As affordability deteriorated, demand weakened and prices began to correct.”
In other words, as Borrelli puts it, the market “went up too high, too fast,” leaving many buyers priced out, and it will take time before they return in full force.
Prices in many Florida markets have been easing year over year since 2022, signaling that they are undergoing what Jones calls “rebalancing” as sellers search for a price point that draws buyers back.
“This correction is likely to continue until demand strengthens enough to stabilize prices,” adds the analyst.
Borrelli points out that the cooling observed in Cape Coral’s housing market is limited to home prices, not the number of sales.
“The buyers are still coming here,” she says. ”They’re still purchasing. Our sales are still continuing at almost the same rate year over year. What’s cooled is the pricing. And now that the pricing is more affordable, it seems to attract just as many buyers.”
Borrelli adds: “It’s actually probably a really good time to buy.”
As for sellers in Cape Coral, the agent says they still have “unrealistic” pricing expectations harking back to the red-hot COVID years.
“And so those houses tend to sit because the buyers are looking for value,” says Borrelli. “They know a house that’s priced well from an overpriced home.”
Sellers across Florida have responded in different ways to sluggish buyer interest: Some are offering concessions, while others—particularly in Miami—are choosing to delist and wait for better market conditions.
In the spring, about a third of all for-sale homes in North Port, identified by Cotality as the nation’s sixth-coolest market, came with a price cut. Cape Coral was close behind with 28% of listings.
Looking ahead, Borrelli says she believe the fundamentals of the local housing market remain strong and the pricing will ultimately find its footing.
“I think we’re getting to a point where the value is there for our houses, and people are seeing that value,” she says. “And as long as that remains, I see prices being steady.”