The U.S. House of Representatives has passed a bill to reopen the federal government, ending the government shutdown after a record-long 43 days.
The White House says President Donald Trump is prepared to quickly sign the bill, which will fund the government through Jan. 30, without extending the expiring health care subsidies Senate Democrats had demanded in return for a spending bill.
Instead, in a compromise reached with a splinter group of Democrats, Senate Republicans agreed to hold a vote by mid-December on an extension of the health care tax credits.
The end of the shutdown means a resumption of federal programs that are key to the stability of the housing market, as well as the return of federal economic reports that have an important influence on mortgage rates.
However, the return to normal won’t be instantaneous as soon as furloughed federal workers return to their jobs on Thursday, says Realtor.com® Senior Economist Anthony Smith.
“The end of a government shutdown initiates a market ‘snapback’ from delayed closings, but a full recovery will be a slower, weekslong process due to accumulated agency backlogs, cautious consumer behavior, and permanent economic loss,” says Smith. “Furthermore, this agreement is not a long-term solution, but more of a stopgap giving the sides more time to negotiate.”
While the government reopening will allow federal agencies to restart essential processes, they will be working through a weeks-long backlog of accumulated applications and requests, potentially slowing operations for days or weeks.
Crucially for the housing market, the National Flood Insurance Program, which underwrites more than 90% of residential flood insurance policies in the nation, will resume processing new applications.
The NFIP must now process all pending applications, which could include a backlog of property evaluations and policy issuances, potentially putting buyers at risk if they close before being issued a policy.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture will also resume issuing new loans and guarantees on rural properties, potentially facing a bottleneck as operations resume.
Federal economic reports to resume
With the shutdown over, key federal reports on economic data will resume, although there is a risk that some of that data will be lost forever.
The September jobs report is expected to come out within a few days of reopening, as it was in the final stages of preparation when the shutdown began on Oct. 1.
However, the White House said on Wednesday that inflation and employment reports for October would likely never be released, leaving the Federal Reserve lacking crucial information when it next sets interest rate policy in December.
“All of that economic data released will be permanently impaired, leaving our policymakers at the Fed flying blind at a critical period,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters.
Fed policymakers are currently deeply divided over the right path to take in December, and the lack of key data will further cloud matters.
Meanwhile, mortgage rates will likely continue to move sideways, as markets gauge the likelihood of another Fed cut before the end of the year.
Shutdown takes economic toll
Although full-time federal workers will receive retroactive pay for the shutdown period, there will be lingering economic fallout.
The Congressional Budget Office, a nonpartisan federal agency that provides economic information to Congress, estimates that the shutdown has resulted in $11 billion in economic losses.
Late last month, the CBO released a letter projecting that the nation’s gross domestic product for the fourth quarter of 2025 will be reduced by 1 to 2 percentage points as a result of the shutdown, depending on how long it ultimately lasts.
While most of the losses in growth are expected to be “recovered eventually” once the government reopens and spending picks up, an estimated $11 billion will be permanently lost, according to the agency.
“Even with back pay, the shutdown inflicts a financial shock,” says Smith. “Households that dipped into savings or accrued debt will hold back on major purchases, like buying a home, until they can rebuild their emergency funds.”
The effects on the housing market may linger, especially in markets with a high concentration of federal workers, such as Washington, DC.
As well, uncertainty lingers over whether Congress will reach a deal to continue funding the government after Jan. 30, a looming deadline that brings the threat of a new shutdown to start 2026.
“Congress has set a new, unavoidable deadline for the next round of funding talks,” says Smith. “There will still be a significant level of uncertainty for consumers and businesses until the longer-term appropriations are passed.”